Brexit has become so endlessly drawn-out and depressing that it’s tough to even think about – let alone try to coherently write about – without a profound sense of existential dread. So let’s have a flutter on it. Why not? Things on our fair isle have reached such a delirious and fraught stage that, at this point, so much is up in the air that the bookies are scrambling to keep up. The odds are in constant motion, lengthening and shortening with every wobble from the chinless wonders in government.
Ladbrokes spoke to the press about it on Wednesday, as they adjusted their odds for the UK leaving the EU before April 1st, with no deal in place, to 3/1, stating that this may be “potentially the biggest year we’ve ever had (for) political betting.” I doubt anyone would blame punters if that’s what this became. I surely wouldn’t. It’s a bit of a relief from the horrors of this unfolding farce, and there’s serious money to be made if you can figure out the right horse to back.
There are those who felt that when Theresa May’s exit deal was voted down by a margin never before seen in Parliament, 432 to 202, that a no-deal scenario was looking likelier, and more frightening, than ever. I have remained of the disposition, which I’ve seen echoed by many in the media since, that the no-vote in fact made it far less likely, and raised the chances of a second referendum, and a potential no-Brexit scenario, higher than they’d been for the two years of this debacle. It seems to me that the two most likely outcomes are a long delay and a much-revised exit deal, or no Brexit at all.
Funnily enough, one thing which has made the no Brexit option more likely is the delay itself. It’s reasonable to conclude that a number of older voters for Brexit have since passed on, and numerous Remainers who were too young to vote in the 2016 referendum have now come of legal voting age. The point at which these numbers crossed over, irrespective of anyone changing their minds, came last Saturday, January 19th, according to research published last September in the Independent by former YouGov President Peter Keller.
Oddschecker are now giving 7/4 for a second referendum on Brexit, with William Hill pitching it at 6/4 and 188 Bet at 7/5. The favourite of the commodities which might first be rationed by the government in the event of a no deal Brexit is fuel, followed by milk. Sky Bet and Betvictor are both offering 11/4 that the UK will still officially leave the EU by the Article 50 deadline of 29th March. It’s a wild market out there, and you can expect these numbers to shift by the day and for ever more creative “Brexit specials” to be devised.
Ladbrokes and Coral are both laying 3/1 that there will be a 2019 UK referendum and the UK will vote to remain, and that’s a nice £400 for a ton* if you’re right. Personally, I’m thinking of hedging my bets and betting that we will, in fact, leave. At least that way, if it comes to it on exit day, I’ll have a few extra quid in the bank as some marginal consolation. I’d have to bet the house to really make myself feel much better though. Ah, to hedge or not to hedge: truly, that is the question.
*British betting slang for £100
