Casino Future Not So Hard to Predict

January 18, 2018 3:50 AM
  • David G. Schwartz
January 18, 2018 3:50 AM
  • David G. Schwartz

I think we would all like to know the future—just a little bit of it, at least. Right now, probably like many of you, I think that if I could learn the next winning Powerball numbers in advance, that would be enough. Some of those who have hit the big jackpot, though, would tell us we’re misguided.

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And, if you’re up on Greek mythology, you may recall that knowledge of the future didn’t do Cassandra much good.

But there’s a huge incentive for those running businesses to get a peek into the future. If they can get a little ahead of the curve, they can invest more wisely, make more money and presumably be happier. Journalists, too, like to see things before they happen: Getting the big scoop leads to professional recognition and personal validation.

The problem, though, is that the future we see is hardly ever the one we get. Even when forecasts are accurate, the big picture can change so much that they are meaningless; sometimes so many of the small details are fudged that we don’t realize the future is actually here.