“The advantage in two-handed blackjack, long supposed to lie with the dealer or the house, was converted recently to the profit by Edward O. Thorp, a young assistant professor in the mathematics department of New Mexico State University.”

— The Atlantic Monthly, June, 1962

A couple of weeks back, the topic of movie star Ben Affleck’s card counting at the Hard Rock Casino in Las Vegas came up yet again in an article titled “Ben Affleck and Jennifer Garner on the rocks – gossip mags say,”  More than a half-century after Edward Thorp’s discovery rocketed him to fame, it’s clear that both the entertainment and casino industries are still obsessed with card counters. But at what cost?

I would like to invite you to answer a challenge question: are you worried that someone is going to take the wooden wheels from your surrey (with the fringe on top)?

Of course not! Your surrey (a modest two-seated covered wagon, pulled by horses) is being monitored 24/7 by watch dogs that have gone through specialized training in wheel protection. You have installed expensive 1.5 inch thick padlocks on each wheel. Moreover, everyone in your neighborhood has been instructed to watch out for wheel thieves. Nobody is going to steal your surrey’s wheels, you can be sure of that!

Never mind the problem of the unguarded Porsche parked next to your surrey.

I struggled to find a good metaphor for the casino industry’s fixation on blackjack card counting. Then my dog Rosie insisted we go for a walk, where she reminded me that she likes car wheels (more about that later). But just in case my metaphor isn’t clear, the surrey represents blackjack; the act of taking the wheels represents card counters; the dogs, padlocks and neighborhood vigilance represents game protection; and the Porsche represents all the other opportunities that are out there for advantage players.

There are several points I’m trying to make with this ill-conceived metaphor.

First, I’m comparing blackjack to a surrey. In casino terms, blackjack has been around forever. Thorp’s “Beat the Dealer” was published in 1962 — that’s 53 years ago (371 dog years). Nearly every facet of the game was explored long ago, from both sides of the table. The modern casino is filled with newer and flashier games, including dozens of variations on the game of blackjack. It follows that opportunities for advantage players have mushroomed in both quantity and quality. There are plenty of Porsches out there.

I chose “steeling wheels” to represent card counters. Yes, there is a little bit of value in wheel thievery, but it is very unlikely that someone with any degree of skill is going to pass up an unguarded Porsche for something with far less value and far greater risk. The modern advantage player targets the highest value and safest opportunities he can find, which is almost never ordinary blackjack card counting. Indeed, the modern advantage player looks down on ordinary blackjack card counting with professional disdain.

I may have been too clever when I wrote “1.5 inch thick padlocks.” Did you recognize that as placing the cut card 1.5 decks from the end of the shoe? If not, the point is that the cost of shallow cut-card placement is extraordinary, yet the game-protection value is minimal. By dealing fewer rounds per shoe, the cards are shuffled more often. The equation is simple: time not spent dealing equals money lost. The profit potential for the card counter is negligible compared to the real cost of time-consuming game protection measures put in place to identify and prevent card counting. It isn’t even close.

Finally, the Porsche. In blackjack, are you watching out for hole-carding, edge sorting, top carding, skilled cutting, shuffle tracking, Ace sequencing and so on? What kind of advantage play is possible against your novelty games? Do you understand the weaknesses of your side bets? What about the complexities of protecting baccarat, the “Game of Kings?” Are your automatic shufflers safe? Can your marketing and promotions be exploited? Are you too generous with loss rebates, points-to-cash programs, non-negotiable chips, match play, free play, etc? Are your hosts giving away the farm? Do you think that your slots and video poker are immune from advantage play?

In my opinion, Ben Affleck is a misguided old dog chasing after worn out wheels on an antique clunker. No doubt, he should have been backed off (my dog Rosie says “grrrrr!”), but there are Porches out there. In return for changing your game protection priorities, you will free up resources and manpower to  protect assets of far greater value. In the long run, by refocusing on the most significant vulnerabilities and taking a top down approach to game protection, your casino will make a lot more money. That’s the bottom line.

In short, it’s time to escape the grip of paranoia that Thorp’s work cast over the industry more than a half-century ago.

And one last thing. Card counters are not thieves. What they do is legal and is not cheating. I do not intend to say that being a card counter is like stealing wheels. It’s more like peeing on them (again … I wish to thank my dog Rosie for this bright idea).

==

Learn the ways skilled players beat every table game in Eliot Jacobson’s new book, “Advanced Advantage Play,” available from Amazon.com. For more information, visit www.advancedadvantageplay.com