Where would you expect to find a better game of blackjack, in a major casino on the Las Vegas strip or in Pennsylvania? The steady decline of good games on the strip continued this month, as the MGM Grand reportedly switched to “blackjack pays 6:5” on some of their low-limit tables. This rule easily pushes the house edge over 1.5% (that’s for a player who knows basic strategy). Meanwhile, there is not a blackjack table in Pennsylvania with a house edge over half a percent.

In August 2002, the Flamingo and a few other strip casinos introduced 6:5 blackjack. In September, 2002, John Grochowski wrote the first article bringing the house edge for 6:5 to light, “Avoid 6-5 Single-Deck Blackjack Games.” Over the years, there have been scores of newspaper and web articles written on 6:5 that lay out just how bad it is for players. Attempts to educate the public and calls for boycotts have been commonplace. In light of this media exposure, I am still trying to understand how this change has come to pass. Why aren’t players defecting from the casinos that offer bad blackjack rules? Why isn’t competition for a quality product driving the market? Why aren’t players protesting in mass?

Today, the only casinos on the Las Vegas strip that don’t have 6:5 blackjack tables are Aria and Bellagio (according to Current Blackjack News, April 2015, Pi Yee Press). Altogether, 6:5 blackjack is now offered on 592 blackjack tables up and down the strip. About 48.9% of all tables on the strip are now 6:5. On some tables at Caesars Palace, the version of 6:5 blackjack they offer has a house edge over 2.3%. Blackjack is morphing into a carnival game, taking its place alongside Three Card Poker, Caribbean Stud and Let it Ride.

In an attempt to understand blackjack’s change over time, I decided to look for an answer from evolutionary biology. This scientific field attempts to explain human behavior, not just physical development, in evolutionary terms. In 1976, biologist Richard Dawkins published the book “The Selfish Gene.” Dawkins wrote,

“Selection has favored genes that cooperate with others. In the fierce competition for scarce resources…there must have been a premium on central coordination rather than anarchy within the communal body.” (page 47)

Blackjack players are the scare resource. The communal body is the Las Vegas strip. Dawkins continued,

“The best strategy for an individual depends upon what the majority of the population are doing. Since the rest of the population consists of individuals, each one trying to maximize his own success, the only strategy that persists will be one which, once evolved, cannot be bettered by any deviant individual.” (page 69)

Evolution is taking its natural course on the Las Vegas strip. If one casino makes a change, then they risk having their customers defect. But, if the change to 6:5 affects most casinos on the strip, then defection becomes much more challenging. In today’s market, casinos that offer 3:2 no longer have a competitive advantage arising from their blackjack rules alone.

The safeguard against this type of decline is a regulatory authority that controls the rules, which is the case in Pennsylvania. In jurisdictions where the options for blackjack are limited, this evolution has been prevented. But, successful evolution in one market is sure to find its way into others. Indeed, 6:5 is now commonplace in casinos throughout the U.S.

The next evolutionary step may be the gradual movement of 6:5 into higher limit blackjack games. There are some casinos that pay 1:1 on blackjack in their party pits, this version may creep into the main games. Other rule changes may be put in place to increase the house edge even further. The game of blackjack we all used to know and love may be going extinct on the Las Vegas strip. It hasn’t been easy for me to accept, but the communal organism has to survive.

Eliot Jacobson’s new book, “Advanced Advantage Play, Beating and Safeguarding Modern Casino Table Games, Side Bets and Promotions,” is now available from Amazon.com. For more information, visit http://www.advancedadvantageplay.com