The recent fall in Macau gaming stocks could swing back to a 50 percent rebound if it is anything like the slowdown of 2011/12, said Morgan Stanley analysts in a note on Friday.

“Based on the last cycle, we learned that stocks tend to decline as soon as GGR growth momentum slows, most of the time driven by VIP slowdown,” said the analysts, noting a +65 percent to -8 percent swing in VIP revenue growth in 2011/12.

The VIP slowdown in 2011 resulted in 30 percent decline in stocks by October 2011, which MS said bears some similarities with the recent slowdown.