In the casino business, we’re used to outlier behavior.  Customers win jackpots.  Customers go on big losing streaks.  Holidays and weekends drive significantly more business than regular Mondays through Thursdays.

Yet with data teeming with outliers our industry relies heavily on the concept of “average” behavior.  We talk about $100 ADT customers as if having the same average daily theoretical makes the customers essentially identical.  The same goes for 10% hold slot machines.  But in reality, these customers are very different, as are the slot machines.

In this webinar, we will discuss how this “Flaw of Averages” leads casinos to make mistakes in analysis that often reduce results in both slots and marketing, and how to correct these mistakes to make the right decisions.

Webinar Topics

Introduction – 70% of drivers think they are above average.  Is this possible?

If 70% of all drivers think they are above average, doesn’t that mean they are kidding themselves?  In fact, not necessarily.  One of the biggest misuses of averages, what we call the “Flaw of Averages,” is assuming that all distributions are normal distributions.  In this session, we will debunk many misapplications of averages in casino analytics and give you the tools to properly leverage your data.  And we’ll explain why it’s quite possible that 70% of drivers are above average!

Marketing Problem #1 – What does $100 of Theo look like? When we do database marketing, we often talk of the “$100 customer” as if they are all the same.  In other industries, this is probably very true.  But in our casino, what does $100 of Theo really look like?

Marketing Problem #2 – Direct mail:  Moving from ADT to Profit Despite increased email capture rates, our industry still spends billions of dollars on direct mail pieces.  And the decision of who to spend this money on usually comes down to ADT or a similar “Daily Average” calculation.  But shouldn’t we be using Profit as the correct measure, and how can we forecast it?

Slots Problem #1 – The price of a slot machine

For years we have considered Hold Percentage as the price of a slot machine.  More recently some have moved to a new measurement called Theo Win per Hour of Play.  But both of these metrics rely heavily on averages.  Are we truly capturing the customer experience when it comes to measuring the cost of our slot machines?

Slots Problem #2 – The impact of streakiness

Going deeper on the discussion of hold percentage, when customers complain about slot machines being too tight, what do they really mean?  They talk of hold percentage, but then we hear complaints like “I lost 15 spins in a row!”  How can analytics without averages give us better insight into this gaming experience?

It’s important for casino operators to understand that statistics can be misleading and how to analyze your numbers in a way that leads to the correct decisions and the best possible results.

Don’t miss this opportunity to get insights from a true expert in the field!

Learn how to make better decisions and improve your bottom line.

Presenter Bio

Accurate at time of webinar production and may not reflect current biography.

Ralph Thomas, Ph.D.
Founder and CEO of Quick Custom Intelligence

Dr. Thomas is founder and CEO of Quick Custom Intelligence (QCI), a company focused on building a suite of analytical software tools for the casino gaming industry including slots, player development and marketing. A gaming industry veteran, Dr. Thomas has substantial experience implementing analytics into single and multi-property gaming companies to drive tangible and measurable gains to the bottom line.

Prior to funding QCI, Dr. Thomas was an advisor, general manager and chief data scientist for VizExplorer, a software company specializing in operational intelligence solutions for casinos. Dr. Thomas was also previously the VP of Strategic Analysis and Database Marketing at Seminole Gaming in Florida as well as holding various roles at Station Casinos in Las Vegas. He has co-authored 3 books and over 80 articles on gaming mathematics and analytics.

Dr. Thomas has a B.A. & an M.S. in Mathematics from the University of Chicago, a M. Phl. in Mathematics from Princeton University, and a Ph.D. in Pure & Applied Mathematics from UNLV, the first such Ph.D. awarded in the state of Nevada.